Qatar mediation in focus as Strait of Hormuz reopening hangs in balance

Qatar’s mediation of a proposed two-day reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains the central question hanging over the Gulf on Monday, Nov. 2, as the US-Israel war on Iran enters another week with oil prices elevated and shipping disruptions continuing across the region.

Under the plan described by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the United States would implement a set of measures on day one, allowing Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal navigation on day two. The proposal is a shortened version of an earlier seven-day plan, reduced to 48 hours after consultations with Qatari mediators. Araghchi said talks were continuing and “moving toward implementation,” but no definitive conclusion has been reached. The plan remains conditional on US action, and its fate rests on whether Washington complies with Iran’s conditions.

Iranian negotiators were in Doha on Nov. 1 for a third consecutive day of talks with Qatari mediators aimed at ending the war. Iran’s army spokesman warned that any renewed war could extend beyond the Middle East and last much longer than the previous conflict.

Decision-making within the US and Israeli governments has become a focal point. Axios reported a split between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Iran, with Netanyahu pressing Trump to strike Iran immediately after Tuesday’s US midterms, while the US leader wants to let negotiations “play out” for now. The reported divide between Washington and Jerusalem highlights a key decision point: continued diplomacy or renewed military action.

Military positioning adds weight to that decision. Media reports, citing Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from Oct. 31, said at least 25 US Air Force refueling aircraft were parked at Ramon Airport. Dozens of KC-135 and KC-46 refueling tankers were seen there, near Eilat, joined by about 10 heavy transports from the US. The buildup is seen as signaling readiness for long-range operations amid tensions with Iran, though US and Israeli officials have not confirmed the numbers. Analysts note the pre-positioning raises war risks.

A naval deployment is also underway. A carrier group led by USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) is moving toward the Middle East to bolster US presence and readiness, including Carrier Air Wing 11, the guided-missile cruiser USS Chosin, and guided-missile destroyers USS Decatur, USS Paul Hamilton, and USS Carl M. Levin. The USS Makin Island amphibious ready group, carrying the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, is moving in tandem, adding thousands of US personnel to the region.

Meanwhile, the strain on shipping and energy markets is already being tested. Earlier on Monday, two projectiles reportedly hit a crude oil carrier off Saudi Arabia. According to a UK Maritime Trade Operations warning, the vessel was travelling southeast through the Arabian Gulf when it was struck by two “unidentified projectiles” about 72 nautical miles, or 133 km, east of Ras Al Khafji, Saudi Arabia. The vessel’s master reported the projectiles hit its port, or left-hand, side at 23:47 UTC on Sunday, Nov. 1, which is 3:47 am UAE time on Monday, Nov. 2. The ship has not been named.

Oil prices reflected the uncertainty. As of Monday morning, WTI crude fell 2.30 percent to $101.70, Brent dropped 2 percent to $111.20, and Murban crude rose 1.85 percent to $114.80 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical global energy chokepoint, and its closure has contributed to a serious energy crisis.

For UAE residents, the governance of airspace and airline schedules is the most immediate effect. Regional tensions involving Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, Yemen and Gaza continue to disrupt air travel, with delays and cancellations reported across Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah airports, including DXB, DWC, AUH and Sharjah. Services to Saudi Arabia remain particularly affected, with Etihad extending cancellations on selected routes until Nov. 5. Emirates, flydubai and Air Arabia have also reported schedule changes. IndiGo, Air India and Air India Express suspended Saudi routes until Nov. 14, while Lufthansa and ITA Airways extended suspensions into late November. British Airways is scheduled to resume limited Riyadh service on Nov. 3, with up to 36 weekly Dubai-Europe services expected between late October and December. Other carriers have postponed returns: Lufthansa on Nov. 25, ITA Airways until Nov. 30, and Singapore Airlines until Feb. 28, 2027.

By contrast, Dubai is preparing for the winter tourism season as travel enters a busy November. The emirate launched the invitation-only Dubai Access Club for repeat visitors, and tourist visas can now be applied for online through Visit Dubai. Departing seat capacity reached 7.2 million in October, up 23 percent from June.

Passengers should check directly with their airlines for the latest schedules, as arrangements can change quickly. Whether the 48-hour Hormuz plan moves from proposal to implementation may decide how quickly fuel costs, delivery times and regional travel plans stabilize.