For the people who live and work along the Gulf, prosperity has a fragile quality to it. The stability that lets families plan, businesses grow and cities thrive rests on an assumption of security that recent events across the Middle East have repeatedly tested. As warfare changes shape, the question facing Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Cooperation Council partners is no longer simply how much to spend on defense, but how to spend it in a way that keeps daily life undisturbed.
Arab News Editor-in-Chief Faisal J. Abbas captured that framing in a March 27 Semafor article, “What a month of war has taught us in the Gulf,” where he described the region as a “gated garden surrounded by a wild jungle.” The image speaks to something residents understand intuitively: the calm inside the garden is not accidental. It is protected, and the cost of protecting it is changing. Events across the region since the article appeared have only reinforced his argument.
The most pressing change is economic. Cheap drones, missiles and other asymmetric threats now proliferate across the region, and they have put the cost-effectiveness of defense systems under an unforgiving light. Expensive interceptors may still be operationally necessary in certain circumstances, but firing them at threats that cost a fraction of their price is neither economically efficient nor sustainable over the long term. For the governments charged with keeping the garden secure, that equation forces a rethink of priorities, with greater emphasis on cost-effective, scalable and adaptable capabilities that complement, rather than replace, the advanced conventional systems that remain essential to deterrence and national defense.
Readiness, in this emerging view, must be measured not only in hardware but in cost-effectiveness, operational efficiency and sustainability, and in the ability of Saudi Arabia and its GCC partners to respond, individually and collectively, to an increasingly complex mix of conventional and asymmetric challenges.
That reassessment found a concrete focal point at the Military Industries Forum held in Riyadh on Oct. 25. Organized by the General Authority for Military Industries, the forum showcased the Kingdom’s progress in building a more capable, sustainable and increasingly localized defense industrial base. Localization of Saudi military spending reached 27.3 percent by the end of 2025, up from just 4 percent in 2018, as the Kingdom advances toward its Vision 2030 target of localizing more than 50 percent of military spending.
Acting GAMI Gov. Bandar Alkhorayef told the forum that geopolitical tensions, disruptions to global supply chains and rapid advances in artificial intelligence, robotics and autonomous systems are reshaping the global defense industry. His point underscores a broader argument: localization should not be measured solely by the share of military expenditure retained within the national economy. It is also a chance to decide which capabilities the Kingdom should develop in the first place.
For Saudi Arabia, that could mean placing greater emphasis on indigenous unmanned and autonomous systems, robotics, AI, electronic warfare and counter-drone technologies, alongside the advanced conventional platforms national defense still requires. Handled this way, localization becomes more than an economic objective; it becomes a strategic instrument for building a defense architecture suited to the changing nature and economics of modern warfare.
Central to that effort is investment in research and development and an integrated defense innovation ecosystem linking innovators, manufacturers and end-users. Such integration is meant to ensure that innovation addresses actual operational requirements, moves efficiently from concept and testing to production, and is continually refined through feedback from the personnel who deploy the technologies. Universities, research centers, emerging technology companies and the private sector all have a role in translating Saudi innovation into deployable capabilities.
The benefits reach beyond economics. Domestic expertise in design, engineering, manufacturing, maintenance and technological development can reduce exposure to global supply-chain disruptions and dependence on external suppliers, a vulnerability that becomes acute during periods of geopolitical tension when critical components, spare parts and technical support can be constrained. A robust domestic defense industry thus serves economic diversification, operational readiness, supply-chain resilience and greater strategic autonomy at once.
The ultimate measure, then, is not how much equipment Saudi Arabia produces at home but how effectively it can develop, manufacture, sustain and continuously improve the capabilities it needs. Protecting the Gulf garden in an unpredictable environment demands more than higher walls or costlier weapons. Military doctrine must evolve alongside warfare, weaving drones, robotics, autonomous systems and AI into operational concepts, training and force structures. The future of Gulf security will be shaped not by the size of arsenals alone but by the ability to integrate capabilities, adapt swiftly to emerging threats and maintain readiness at an economically sustainable cost. Saudi Arabia is well positioned to lead that transformation and advance a smarter, more integrated and increasingly self-reliant GCC defense architecture.
Talat Zaki Hafiz is an economist and financial analyst.