Gulf residents face fallout as security guarantees fail to stop regional strikes
Gulf residents reassess security after military strikes expose alliance limits
Civilian airports hit. Energy facilities struck. Hotels targeted. For the people living and working across Gulf states since February 28, the US-Israel war on Iran has not been an abstraction. It has been the sound of missiles and drones overhead, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the creeping realization that the security arrangements their governments relied on for decades did not protect them the way anyone had promised.
That lived reality is now driving a fundamental rethink among Gulf capitals. Analysts say countries across the region are accelerating efforts to build partnerships beyond their traditional reliance on American military protection, even as Tehran and Washington negotiate toward a lasting agreement.
Additional reference context is available at https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/how-us-iran-war-may-push-gulf-countries-to-diversify-security-alliances.
The conflict exposed vulnerabilities Gulf states can no longer ignore. Iranian attacks struck military bases housing US troops, civilian airports, energy facilities and hotels across several countries. Even after Tehran and Washington reached a memorandum of understanding to end the war earlier this month, the Iranian military, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, continued launching missiles and drones at targets in Bahrain and Kuwait in skirmishes with US forces. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz created what analysts describe as an unprecedented security crisis for Gulf Cooperation Council members.
Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, framed the challenge plainly. “The US and Israeli war on Iran and its hugely negative impact on Gulf states has convinced some regional capitals that they want to shift away from a US-centric security architecture,” she said. “The Iran war is making some Gulf states question the value of the US as a security guarantor.”
The diversification strategy is already underway. Saudi Arabia signed a defence pact with Pakistan before the war, an alliance that could expand to include other regional players. Gulf states have been purchasing defence systems from European countries for years while maintaining friendly relations with Russia and China, a pattern experts expect to deepen. Jacobs Khalaf described the approach: “This doesn’t mean replacing the US with Pakistan; it means diversifying partnerships and setting up platforms like the so-called quad group of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan. It also means developing their own domestic defensive capabilities and developing more regional autonomy.”
The US military presence in the region has itself become a complication. Annelle Sheline, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, observed that American installations “actually had the opposite of a deterrent effect. These military bases became targets.” US forces proved “unreliable” in preventing Iran’s attacks, she said, suggesting Gulf countries will likely seek to “diversify” their security alliances and deepen ties with China, Turkey and Europe.
By contrast, Gulf nations are also pursuing a parallel track that may prove more durable than military hardware alone. Despite anger over Iranian attacks, several GCC countries have kept communication channels open with Tehran, even at the security level, and are moving to mend ties and deepen economic relations with their neighbour. US Vice President JD Vance recently described these efforts: “The Emiratis are having conversations with the Iranians that have never happened before, including with the IRGC, about various types of economic incentives. The Iranians come back and say, ‘OK, yeah, we’re willing to do all those things’.”
Sheline argued that economic interdependence may offer a more effective deterrent than weapons systems. “If Gulf and Iranian economic interests are intertwined, Tehran would think twice before striking the region,” she said. “Gulf states are likely to try a different approach, whereby they try to make it more costly for Iran to strike them in the future by tying themselves more closely to Iran, such as through electricity infrastructure.”
The regional calculus has also shifted because of Israeli military actions. Last year, Israel bombed the Qatari capital Doha in an attempt to kill Hamas leaders during US-backed Gaza ceasefire mediations. President Donald Trump said he was “very unhappy” with the strikes on Qatar, a major non-NATO ally of the US, and denied approving or having prior knowledge of the attack. Beyond that incident, Israel’s broader military campaigns have alarmed Gulf populations and their governments alike. Jacobs Khalaf was direct: “Many Gulf states feel very threatened by Israel’s increasingly aggressive posture in the region. Israel’s destruction in Gaza since October 7, its entrenching and expanding occupation of Palestinian lands and its attacks on both Lebanon and Syrian territory are hugely threatening and unacceptable to all the Gulf states, even those that have normalised relations with Israel.”
The Trump administration faces its own strategic crossroads. Trump’s National Security Strategy emphasized last year that Washington no longer views the Middle East as a geopolitical priority, arguing that foreign policy resources must shift elsewhere, particularly the Western Hemisphere. Yet the US maintains longstanding political and security commitments to Israel, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to abide by the memorandum of understanding’s demands for a regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon. Trump’s team has backed a separate agreement between Lebanon and Israel that gives Israel broad freedom of action in the country until Hezbollah disarms, a position that appears at odds with the ceasefire framework.
Sheline cautioned that Israel could become a spoiler to any comprehensive agreement with Iran. “The big question mark is Israel,” she said. If the US pressures Israel to prevent the Netanyahu government from undermining the deal, Washington could step back and allow “regional countries to take greater responsibility for their own security in a way that is much more sustainable.”
For the families and workers across Gulf cities who lived through the strikes, the question is not abstract strategy. It is whether the next arrangement, whatever shape it takes, will actually keep them safe.
Q&A
What specific infrastructure has been targeted in Gulf states since the conflict began?
Civilian airports, energy facilities, hotels, and military bases housing US troops have been struck by Iranian attacks across several Gulf countries, with the Strait of Hormuz also closed.
How are Gulf states diversifying their security arrangements?
Saudi Arabia signed a defence pact with Pakistan, Gulf states are purchasing defence systems from European countries, and they are maintaining friendly relations with Russia and China while developing domestic defensive capabilities.
What role is economic interdependence playing in Gulf security strategy?
Gulf nations are exploring deeper economic relations with Iran, including electricity infrastructure ties, as analysts argue that intertwined economic interests could deter Iranian strikes more effectively than military hardware alone.
What concerns do Gulf residents and governments have about Israel?
Gulf populations and governments feel threatened by Israel's military actions in Gaza, its occupation of Palestinian lands, and its attacks on Lebanon and Syria, which are viewed as unacceptable even by states with normalized relations with Israel.