UAE to resume payments, Saudi to give air cover in Yemen

The mechanics of the war in Yemen are being rebuilt. Under an agreement reached between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, the UAE will resume payments to some government forces fighting the Iran-aligned Houthis in the south, while Saudi Arabia has committed to providing air cover for the anti-Houthi force. The details come from sources in Yemen, and they mark the first tangible sign that the deep rift between the two Gulf states over Yemen’s future is beginning to heal, driven largely by the advance of Houthi forces across the country, which has alarmed all the rival Gulf rulers.

The forces at the centre of the deal are the southern units, mainly the Giant Brigades, previously trained and funded by the UAE and regarded as among the most effective in the disjointed anti-Houthi military coalition. Their effectiveness had been in question since January, when the UAE quit operations inside Yemen and cut off the funding supply line. Restoring that pipeline, paired with Saudi air cover, is the operational core of the new cooperation.

Whether the arrangement can hold depends on unresolved questions of execution. Neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE has responded to a demand this week by southern Yemen separatists for a referendum on secession, a move that would restore the 1967-1990 borders, when Yemen was two separate states. The separatist Southern Transition Council has not yet agreed for its troops to fight outside the borders of the old Southern Yemen, but an explicit Saudi agreement to allow a referendum would be likely to lift that restriction.

There is also no direct contact between the STC leader, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, and Saudi officials. Zubaidi fled to Abu Dhabi in January after a failed STC attempt to take charge across the south and announce a referendum on separation in two years’ time. In response, the Saudis bombed UAE arms shipments for STC forces. The UAE then announced it was quitting all involvement in Yemen, and the Saudi-backed government said it would seek to try Zubaidi for treason.

The pressure behind the deal is visible in the state of the battlefield and the infrastructure supporting it. Yemen’s UN-recognised government, based in Aden, declared last week a counteroffensive to drive Houthi forces from the capital Sana’a, but the military drive has so far met with limited success around Majzar near Marib and the Bab al-Mandab strait. UAE officials are deeply concerned by the state of the conflict. Despite massive losses, the Houthis are determined eventually to capture Taiz and Marib, the two remaining cities outside the boundaries of the old Southern Yemen.

Saudi Arabia itself is struggling to maintain an atmosphere of normality as daily drone and missile attacks immobilise its airports and some of its energy infrastructure. On Friday two missiles fired by the Houthis struck the airport of Aden while a passenger plane was preparing to take off. The missiles landed about 500 metres from the Yemenia Airways aircraft and approximately 100 metres from the midpoint of the runway, according to Yemen’s information minister, Moammar Al-Eryani. No casualties were reported. The strike came a day after at least five people were killed and 16 injured in a Houthi attack on a presidential palace in Aden.

Meanwhile, external support is being organised around these operational gaps. Egypt’s president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, said he was convening an emergency session of parliament to grant his country’s military the powers to take action in defence of Saudi Arabia, stressing that Egypt would take no offensive action and would only defend Saudi Arabia. In the UK, discussions are continuing about a Saudi request for further military aid. An RAF Voyager air-to-air refuelling aircraft has been sent, but regional diplomats are pressing for the UK to do more, and some concern is being expressed over whether Riyadh should engage more closely with other Gulf states, including Oman and Qatar.

The legal implications of blanket UK backing for the largely Saudi air campaign are also under consideration. The court of appeal in 2019 found the UK had acted unlawfully in issuing arms export licences during a previous Saudi bombing campaign of Yemen in 2015-16. The Campaign Against Arms Trade said the UK had made no proper assessment of potential Saudi breaches of international humanitarian law, forcing a revision of procedures. Saudi Arabia claims to have revised its methods substantially since then and argues it is acting in self-defence in line with the UN charter. The UN security council on 15 October adopted a presidential statement asserting Saudi Arabia’s right to act in self-defence in line with international law.

The human cost of the stalled campaign continues to mount. No accurate death toll in the war since August is available, but more than 200,000 people have been displaced, according to the UN, which is placing increasing pressure on Aden-based humanitarian groups. For now, the resumed funding and promised air cover represent a repair job on a fractured coalition, and the test will be whether the payments flow, the aircraft fly, and the southern forces move.